Por: Andrea Huerta Cruz
139278 Relaciones Internacionales UDLAP
Popular saying goes: “Democrats fall in love with a candidate, Republicans just fall in line.”
So, how come we have not seen the GOP base do any falling for anyone just yet? There is no doubt that the road towards the Republican primaries has been a bumpy one, a real roller coaster with wobbly ups and downs that have made us all a bit lightheaded. Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism tells us that the cause of this is very simple: given that most Republicans have not made up their minds about their candidate, the preferences expressed are strongly influenced by whatever media reports are saying at the moment.[1]
However, it would seem as if a certain former Massachusetts governor was exempt from this rule. For some reason, Mitt Romney never seems to go either up or down on national opinion polls: his acceptance has never gone above 24%. This stagnation and inability to skyrocket on surveys as say, Herman Cain, strikes many as a weakness. For me, it is actually remarkable that he has remained there for so long seeing how no one in the Republican base even likes him, his health care or his notable inconsistency on most issues, for that matter. I get the feeling that Romney has been kept there as a safety net while Republicans can find a more agreeable suitor.
And efforts have indeed been made to find that golden candidate: one that is … not Mitt Romney, at the very least. But somehow, the Mormon candidate has managed to jump all obstacles proving that he’s either a strong choice, there is an evil curse going on or he’s just the luckiest man on Earth: all of his main competitors have seen their nomination campaigns crash into some big inconvenience, scandal or controversy.
Let’s start with Michele Bachmann. It may seem like a blurry memory but once upon a time, this Tea Party enthusiast was actually leading the polls. Now, she has fallen way behind on every single survey and cannot seem to control even her own staff or support base. Her entire New Hampshire campaign staff quit on October 21st [2] and American Majority, a Tea Party association has called her a backbencher and urged her to please “quit the presidential race.”[3] These slips as well as other standard yet crazy fails such as implying Libya was not in Africa during the Western Presidential debate sponsored by CNN,[4] or her bizarre ramblings about HPV vaccines giving little girls mental retardation;[5] all of these things threaten with putting her in the fading way to oblivion.
Then we have charming Texas governor Rick Perry, who swiftly took advantage of Bachmann’s downfall and scored some points for himself on the polling horse race. Good old Rick has actually everything a solid candidate should have, except for one little detail: he’s just not great at public speaking. And as unfortunately, running for presidential office does require you to do quite a lot of talking, his poor debate performances have cost him some of his popularity.
As this entertaining bit where he tries to attack Romney (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs6a7Etqjec) shows, it would not be insane that Romney could actually win a debate by not even having to say anything at all. If you don’t know what I mean you have obviously not seen his latest New Hampshire speech video. In this footage jewel, a giggly Rick Perry babbles away looking more like a cartoon on a sugar rush than actual President candidate material, be sure to check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ldsf4f681tM&feature=related
The latest character in the Republican primary bouncing game is Herman Cain. The Georgian businessman called attention as he positioned himself as a strong black Republican emerged from the private initiative. Despite having a few crazy ideas which include an electrified border fence; his 9-9-9 tax plan was praised by important economical figures like Arthur B. Laffer.[6] Cain gained notoriety and it seemed like nothing could stop his rise to the stars. And then, on everyone’s favorite note of the week, Politico took endearing ice cream lover, pizza tycoon Herman Cain and presented him to us as a sexual harasser who used his position in the National Restaurant Association to hit on women during the 1990s.
The disclosure of the facts caught him off guard and he certainly did not know how to handle it other than by contradicting himself and blurting out all kinds of nonsense. And after the initial shock he has resorted to avoid the topic by warning “Don’t even go there!” when journalists confront him with the allegations. He also tried to exonerate himself with the already expected “It’s only because I’m black!” But this is not a case about the racism he so strongly claimed did not exist coming back to haunt him; his sexual harassment settlement from two decades ago did not come to the surface because he is black, it came because he was the frontrunner. Such a thing happened to Perry when he was the frontrunner, and we all got to learn how his family’s old hunting venue had a certain racist name. Herman Cain needs to quit using racial reasons to justify this kind of happening.
As Sharon Bialek, his fourth accuser, makes her media appearance at this very moment; we have yet to determine whether this will be a fatal blow to Cain’s popularity. At first glance, the scandal doesn’t seem to have done much harm, according to the new USA Today/Gallup Poll results where it is established that Romney and Cain continue to be tied at 21%.[7] Nevertheless, Cain’s campaign funds are the ones that have started to suffer and in my opinion, it is just too soon to tell how much Cain will be affected by this. Inertia has yet to do its job in this Republican circus.
So far, Romney has been very lucky as his competitors have nearly boycotted themselves and he has a chance to succeed precisely because he has been stable and static on his public acceptance numbers all this time. Mitt Romney may be capable to win the primary just on the basis of being the “last man standing” but let us not forget that it will take a whole lot more than that for him to win over the Presidency.
[1] Mark Blumenthal, “Republican polls’ roller coaster powered by news coverage,” Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/21/republican-presidential-polls-powered-by-news-coverage_n_1025219.html
[2] “Bachmann’s New Hampshire campaign staff quits,” Reuters
[3] Shannon Travis, “Tea party group to Bachmann: Quit the presidential race,” CNN Political Ticker http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/27/tea-party-group-to-bachmann-quit-the-presidential-race/
[4] Amanda Terkel, “Michele Bachmann: ‘Obama put us in Libya, he is now putting us in Africa,” Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/18/michele-bachmann-libya-africa_n_1018814.html
[5] Trip Gabriel, “Bachmann finds an issue with HPV debate,” The Caucus (NYTimes Political and Government Blog) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/bachmann-finds-an-issue-with-hpv-debate/
[6] William J. Bennett, “Republicans want new kind of candidate for 2012,” CNN
[7] Susan Page, “Poll: Romney, Cain tied, but there are red flags for both” USA Today
