Eduardo Cicerón López
Sociedad y Política de Estados Unidos
U. S. Unemployment fell: Do we have been here before?
In last
February the unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 7.7%, numbers which was not
obtained since December 2008 according to the latest data provided by the Labor
Affairs Bureau; 246.000 net jobs were added within various sectors of the U.S.
economy. However, within the first quarter and in the early second term of
Obama, the barely managed fiscal accounts and the adjustments to the Federal
Reserve are being done in a very measured ways. Now it seems that U.S.
companies do not take into account the budgetary constraints and economic
uncertainty registered by low taxes and expansionary monetary policies from the
Federal Reserve that took place before in the context of 2008 crisis. Well, now
appears that the objectives of Obama will reach an unemployment rate of 6.5
keeping the loans by the Federal Reserve in a zero interest rate it ke. Thing
that it keeps me really concerned. So, we
have not been here before?. Appears that the labor market is ignoring tax
increases that occurred in January at the same time when public spending cuts
which took effect in early March and, according to some forecasts is going to
cost the country about 0.5 points of its growth this year understanding that
the U.S. GDP showed a slight growth of
0.2% in the last quarter of 2012.
In my
opinion is one of the first achievements of Obama in his second term, and apparently he know that definitely needs to work in the dialogue against the
Republicans because this slight growth based on expansionary monetary policy from
the Federal Reserve could be derailed if the disagreements continues in the
congress about deficit reduction in the long term. However, Obama is making a serious
demonstration that the U.S. economy can
survive the fiscal austerity that is coming and has the sufficient structure to withstand
the blow of higher taxes and deep cuts in government spending. I think Obama is
doing a good job bringing these policies to the pair of a minimum wage increase
and a high tax collection against big corporations but also should consider the
inflation that could reverse this economic growth, the reduction of 10,000 jobs
in the public sector and the uncertainty for foreign investment which is interpreted in distrust generated by the
federal budget cuts and the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is
generating to provide loans to financial intermediaries in a zero rate.
It appears
that the U.S. economy finally recovers from the crisis of 2008, but for many
academics it seems to be a regression to the beginning of a new crisis.
However, if employment increases, so will production and a key factor is going
to be how the U.S. consumerism works. Are they going to think a bit in savings?. So this is a good wey to incentive an economy where the society stocked in debt but we will have to keep an aye on it because they produce more than they consume.
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