miércoles, 13 de marzo de 2013

U. S. Unemployment fell: Do we have been here before?

                                                                                                                            Eduardo Cicerón López
Sociedad y Política de Estados Unidos
 
 
U. S. Unemployment fell: Do we have been here before?
 
 
In last February the unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 7.7%, numbers which was not obtained since December 2008 according to the latest data provided by the Labor Affairs Bureau; 246.000 net jobs were added within various sectors of the U.S. economy. However, within the first quarter and in the early second term of Obama, the barely managed fiscal accounts and the adjustments to the Federal Reserve are being done in a very measured ways. Now it seems that U.S. companies do not take into account the budgetary constraints and economic uncertainty registered by low taxes and expansionary monetary policies from the Federal Reserve that took place before in the context of 2008 crisis. Well, now appears that the objectives of Obama will reach an unemployment rate of 6.5 keeping the loans by the Federal Reserve in a zero interest rate it ke. Thing that it keeps me really concerned.  So, we have not been here before?. Appears that the labor market is ignoring tax increases that occurred in January at the same time when public spending cuts which took effect in early March and, according to some forecasts is going to cost the country about 0.5 points of its growth this year understanding that the U.S. GDP  showed a slight growth of 0.2% in the last quarter of 2012.
In my opinion is one of the first achievements of Obama in his second term,  and apparently he know that definitely  needs to work in the dialogue against the Republicans because this slight growth based on expansionary monetary policy from the Federal Reserve could be derailed if the disagreements continues in the congress about deficit reduction in the long term. However, Obama is making a serious  demonstration that the U.S. economy can survive the fiscal austerity that is coming  and has the sufficient structure to withstand the blow of higher taxes and deep cuts in government spending. I think Obama is doing a good job bringing these policies to the pair of a minimum wage increase and a high tax collection against big corporations but also should consider the inflation that could reverse this economic growth, the reduction of 10,000 jobs in the public sector and the uncertainty for foreign investment  which is interpreted in distrust generated by the federal budget cuts and the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is generating to provide loans to financial intermediaries in a zero rate.
It appears that the U.S. economy finally recovers from the crisis of 2008,  but for many academics it seems to be a regression to the beginning of a new crisis. However, if employment increases, so will production and a key factor is going to be how the U.S. consumerism works. Are they going to think a bit in savings?. So this is a good wey to incentive an economy where the society stocked in debt but we will have to keep an aye on it because they produce more than they consume.


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