JODE BIDEN IN UKRAINE - WHO WON ON UKRAINE? COULD THE U.S. BE DRAGGED INTO A CONFRONTATION?

Leonardo Sala Flores 143050 22/04/2014

Today, Vice-president Joe Biden arrived at Ukraine, as a show of support for the Ukrainian government and pressure for the Russian counterpart. As part of the analysis made, the question about who really won in the Ukraine rises and the role of Mr. Biden and the Obama administration in the future of the country stands to be observed. Therefore, I must totally DISAGRRE with the affirmations that Russia won in Ukraine. Here is why:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-arrives-in-ukraine-to-show-us-support-as-crisis-with-russia-continues/2014/04/21/e4a77800-c960-11e3-a75e-463587891b57_story.html

WHO WON ON UKRAINE?

To be frank, Mr. Putin’s moves were worthy of a chess match. He set his pieces, waited patiently for the proper timing and then made his move. A truly genius stroke made by the modern Machiavelli. However, before jumping on Putin’s bandwagon, we must stop for a minute and consider that maybe this was a stroke from another genius, Mr. Barack Obama.

It’s true that Putin was able to expose the U.S. and its allies. It’s true that after being able to hold the U.S. back in Syria, the United States may have been elaborating a strategy to “counter attack” Russia. Ukraine was the setting and Crimea was but the bait the West would set for Putin’s claim.

With the aforementioned in mind, let’s fast forward a little bit, some 4 or 5 years. The U.S. might as well be the nation with the largest reserve and production of Shale Gas according to the American Gas Association. If these estimates are accurate, then the U.S. would be able to supplement Ukraine with the natural gas it requires, ending the Ukrainian dependence on Russian gas.

Another important move is what Ukraine and the West will doto guarantee Ukrainian national integrity in the future. That’s precisely the point where I think the U.S. has been able to outwit the Russian government. Whatever happens with the gas issue, it’s more than likely that Ukraine will restate its case to join the European Union and more importantly –and easier-, NATO.

The U.S. and the West have seen the bigger picture –maybe even Putin did and therefore decided to take action? - and decided to “sacrifice” Crimea in order to save Ukraine.

COULD THE U.S. BE DRAGGED INTO A CONFRONTATION?

So, what could Russia do? I see only one way out: Invade Ukraine. The present unsettling internal situation in Ukraine is a tailor-made landscape for such and endeavor. I doubt however, that Russia would take chances to directly invade Ukraine, but it would be smart to support the pro-Russian forces with weaponry and intelligence, preparing the situation for Ukraine to implode and weaken and either allowing the situation to unfold and secure Ukraine via a puppet in power or a full scale invasion.

It’s hard to imagine a full-scale war between the U.S. and Russia, but the international image of the U.S. has been deteriorated too much already, at least a U.S. military force deployment might be considered in order to convince Russia they mean business. Might be risky, but the Russians love strong and iron fist politics and that maybe what the U.S. should provide in order to gain a foothold in Russia’s backyard and exhort Putin to realize he can’t do as he wills.

Anyway, this is the scenario I’m guessing will unfold. I truly see the U.S. as victor on a larger scale, which is why I think Putin might have pushed this as hard as he could have. Only time will tell. The situation is dire, the board is set and the pieces are moving.