Election Day: Five important questions that remain

Karla Selene Alvarez Espinosa

Gobierno y Procesos Políticos de Estados Unidos

Lunes, 05 de noviembre de 2012

                Yesterday in the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza published an article entitled “Election Day: Five important questions that remain.” The article contains five questions the author considers important to the Tuesday's presidential election. The first is about what will matter more: the enthusiasm advantage of Romney or the organizational edge of Obama, the second aims to find out if Pennsylvania will expand the chances of winning for Romney. The third asks who are going to support the independent voters considering that in polls Obama has been regularly behind Romney but also that Obama’s management of Hurricane Sandy has moved some of those independent votes to his side. Number four questions if the young people vote is going to support Obama as in 2004, and finally the fifth question is about how big will be the gender gap considering that until now is among the smallest in modern presidential history.

                I agree with the author that even though the presidential election is only to a couple of days to be carried out, these questions remain unknown and important to find out in order to get an approximation of the final outcome. It is true that we still don’t know if it is going to be enthusiasm or organization the winning strategy, but the fact is that none of the above is exclusive of the candidates, they are complementary; therefore a winning candidate would not represent a winning strategy. It is also true that if Romney wins Pennsylvania the playing field will be expanded for the republicans, however other swing states are important for the final result of the election and it is also essential to remember the weight of the Electoral College votes on it. About the independent voters I agree with the author that the Obama's performance in terms of the Sandy Hurricane could be a factor to be eligible for such votes, nevertheless it could have the opposite effect if the voters are unhappy with his performance. I agree also that the young voters are another sector that is impossible even now to know whether they will give Obama the same support they gave him in 2004 or not. Same thing happens with the gender gap that the polls show it is smaller for the republicans than in previous elections. Both young voters and women are key sectors in order to win the election.

                Even though polls show certain tendencies or preferences of the electorate, there are always other factors that come into play regarding the outcome of the presidential election that will take place on Tuesday. Even now it is impossible to know accurately if Pennsylvania, the young voters and women are going to support Romney or Obama or if the independent voters will in the end choose the Democratic or the Republican Party.  It is even less likely ensure which strategy has worked best for candidates. In order to really know how has been transformed the United States politics and the electoral processes will be necessary to wait for the final outcome of the presidential election. Until then, the above questions may be possibly answered.